EXISTENTIAL THREATS
The 17 challenges navigated by AwareNearth are not a finite list, but rather a dynamic landscape of risks that can be characterized as either catastrophic (causing massive loss of life and ending the current era) or existential (leading to permanent human extinction or an unrecoverable collapse), depending on the specific thresholds and definitions applied.
The aim of AwareNearth is not to reach scientific or philosophical unanimity on these definitions, but to navigate them as a means of building collective resilience and reducing the growing "eco-anxiety" of our time. By distinguishing between these threats—the external hazards we face—and the risks created by our own vulnerabilities, we recognize a fundamental truth: while natural-origin existential threats (like asteroid impacts or supervolcanic eruptions) are statistically less likely to occur in the coming centuries and offer humanity limited agency beyond acceptance and basic preparedness, man-made existential risks are the direct result of our own systems and technologies. Consequently, these anthropogenic risks are within our power to minimize, providing a clear call for the individual and collective action necessary to safeguard the present and preserve the potential for all future generations to come.
Classification of 17 existential threats
RISKS & LIKELIHOOD
Risks and likelihoods for 17 existential threats
Sources & Methodology
Primary Risk Estimates: Adapted from Toby Ord (2020), The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity, Oxford University.
Scientific Framework: Risk definitions and categorizations are based on research from the Future of Humanity Institute (FHI) and the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER), University of Cambridge.
Earth Systems Data: Environmental risk factors (Climate, Biodiversity, Oceans) are informed by the Planetary Boundaries framework (Stockholm Resilience Centre) and the IPCC AR6 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports.
Note on Methodology: These probabilities represent informed risk assessments based on current scientific evidence and expert modeling. Because many of these events have no historical precedent, researchers use "Bayesian" logic—a method that calculates the likelihood of future events by combining historical data with current technological and environmental trends. These figures are not exact predictions, but rather tools to help us prioritize global resilience and mitigation efforts.
"Bruegel’s 1562 masterpiece, 'The Triumph of Death,' serves as a 16th-century map of existential risk. While modern definitions use terms like 'GDP collapse' and 'planetary boundaries,' Bruegel captures the same truth: the fragility of civilization when life-support systems fail and the 'worthwhile activities' of humanity (John Leslie, 1996) are silenced by systemic catastrophe." The Triumph of Death (c. 1562) by Pieter Bruegel the Elder.
definitions
"An existential risk is a risk that threatens the destruction of humanity’s long-term potential.” Toby Ord, The Precipice. 2020
"Existential threats are the conditions—such as climate breakdown and land encroachment—that threaten the existence and survival of Indigenous Peoples as distinct collectives, severing the triadic link between self-determination, cultural integrity, and their ancestral territories." Elisa Morgera, UN Special Rapporteur on Climate Change and Human Rights. 2024
"Existential risk is the probability of a given event leading to either human extinction or the irreversible end of human development." 2023 Midterm Review of the Sendai Framework
"Extinction would be a loss of truly enormous proportions: a loss not only of the lives and the happiness of the people who would otherwise have been born, but also of all their worthwhile activities." John Leslie. The End of the World: The Science and Ethics of Human Extinction. 1996
"Existential risk is not merely a future probability of total extinction, but the current, accelerating erosion of the ecosystems and traditional knowledge that sustain the identity and physical survival of communities." Hindou Oumarou Ibrahim, Chair of the UN Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues. 2024
"The loss of the value of all the lives which might have been lived in the future, had the human race not become extinct, is a loss of truly enormous proportions." John Broom. Climate Matters: Ethics in a Warming World. 2012
"Existential risks are anthropogenic or natural hazards that threaten the entire future of humanity by pushing Earth’s life-support systems beyond their natural boundaries and causing the permanent collapse of global GDP, population, or natural resources." World Economic Forum (WEF). 2024
NATURAL
Catastrophic natural events, such as asteroid impacts, supervolcanic eruptions, and stellar explosions, have a very low probability of occurring within any given century, yet would result in global devastation. An asteroid collision could trigger a "global winter," while a supervolcanic eruption would cause long-term agricultural collapse through ash and sulfur injection. Similarly, a nearby gamma-ray burst could strip the ozone layer, exposing life to lethal radiation.
anthropogenic
Anthropogenic threats arise directly from human activity and technology, escalating significantly over the last century. A large-scale nuclear exchange could trigger a devastating "nuclear winter," while widespread environmental collapse—encompassing resource depletion and ecosystem failure—threatens the stability of the food chain. Furthermore, a highly contagious pandemic, particularly an engineered one, could cause the collapse of essential social and economic structures.
unknown
This category highlights the limitations of human foresight, reminding us of dangers we have yet to conceive—the "unknown unknowns." It includes "black swans," which are unpredictable, highly improbable events with severe consequences. Furthermore, the rapid development of new technologies may inadvertently create unpredictable risks, much like the belated discovery of nuclear winter as a consequence of atomic power.