17 EXISTENTIAL THREATS
Navigating the 17 Challenges
The risks we navigate—from catastrophic to existential—define our era. While natural threats like asteroids call for humility, man-made risks are the direct result of our own systems.
Because we created these risks, we have the power to minimize them. Our goal is not to debate definitions, but to transform "eco-anxiety" into collective resilience. By distinguishing between what we can and cannot control, we empower every generation to safeguard our present and preserve the potential for all who follow.
AwareNearth Existential threats Compass - Donut
(double paradox of direction & time)
Imperfect classification of 17 existential threats
definitions
"An existential risk is a risk that threatens the destruction of humanity’s long-term potential.” Toby Ord, The Precipice. 2020
"Existential threats are the conditions—such as climate breakdown and land encroachment—that threaten the existence and survival of Indigenous Peoples as distinct collectives, severing the triadic link between self-determination, cultural integrity, and their ancestral territories." Elisa Morgera, UN Special Rapporteur on Climate Change and Human Rights. 2024
"Existential risk is the probability of a given event leading to either human extinction or the irreversible end of human development." 2023 Midterm Review of the Sendai Framework
"Extinction would be a loss of truly enormous proportions: a loss not only of the lives and the happiness of the people who would otherwise have been born, but also of all their worthwhile activities." John Leslie. The End of the World: The Science and Ethics of Human Extinction. 1996
"Existential risk is not merely a future probability of total extinction, but the current, accelerating erosion of the ecosystems and traditional knowledge that sustain the identity and physical survival of communities." Hindou Oumarou Ibrahim, Chair of the UN Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues. 2024
"The loss of the value of all the lives which might have been lived in the future, had the human race not become extinct, is a loss of truly enormous proportions." John Broom. Climate Matters: Ethics in a Warming World. 2012
"Existential risks are anthropogenic or natural hazards that threaten the entire future of humanity by pushing Earth’s life-support systems beyond their natural boundaries and causing the permanent collapse of global GDP, population, or natural resources." World Economic Forum (WEF). 2024
NATURAL
Catastrophic natural events, such as asteroid impacts, supervolcanic eruptions, and stellar explosions, have a very low probability of occurring within any given century, yet would result in global devastation. An asteroid collision could trigger a "global winter," while a supervolcanic eruption would cause long-term agricultural collapse through ash and sulfur injection. Similarly, a nearby gamma-ray burst could strip the ozone layer, exposing life to lethal radiation.
anthropogenic
Anthropogenic threats arise directly from human activity and technology, escalating significantly over the last century. A large-scale nuclear exchange could trigger a devastating "nuclear winter," while widespread environmental collapse—encompassing resource depletion and ecosystem failure—threatens the stability of the food chain. Furthermore, a highly contagious pandemic, particularly an engineered one, could cause the collapse of essential social and economic structures.
unknown
This category highlights the limitations of human foresight, reminding us of dangers we have yet to conceive—the "unknown unknowns." It includes "black swans," which are unpredictable, highly improbable events with severe consequences. Furthermore, the rapid development of new technologies may inadvertently create unpredictable risks, much like the belated discovery of nuclear winter as a consequence of atomic power.